N.D. Senate Update - March 11, 2019

Crossover break is over, and both chambers are back to work. Some committee hearings were held Wednesday morning, while other committees chose to wait until afternoon. The Senate held session at 1 p.m. and cleared our calendar of a few House bills we had moved out of committee before the break.

Even though it was a short week, I had a busy schedule. Wednesday was the final hearing for SB 2149 in the House Education Committee. This is a constituent driven bill about ways to decrease suicides in young people. Kennedy Gjovik and her family drove to Bismarck, so she could provide her testimony to the committee. She did an excellent job and answered several questions from the committee. Now we wait again to see what the committee decision will be.

Right after that hearing, I joined Senator Wardner to provide supporting testimony on SCR 4016 which is a constitutional revision resolution pertaining to the changes to the North Dakota Board of Higher Education. I support a one board model like the current model but with additional board members, a change in terms for the members, and a change in the membership of the selection committee. When I finished the Governor came to ask the committee to support his two-board model that already failed in the House. I did visit with the chairman of the committee later and he is looking to amend the one board model bill. I doubt it will change to a two-board model though.

I introduced SCR 40017, which is a resolution for Legislative Management to consider studying the differences in how Tribal Historic Preservation Officers designate a historic area as compared to how the State Historical Society completes a designation. There was no opposing testimony on the resolution. With little discussion, the committee made a 5-1 Do Not Pass recommendation.

The Senate also defeated a study resolution to study how a family leave policy could be implemented. This study could be important in finding ways to implement a family leave policy. This policy could have been an important workforce recruitment tool, but it was not to be.

Our caucus invited the proponents and opposition lobbyists to our Thursday noon caucus to discuss historic horse-racing, which is HB 1443. I am hearing from charities that this would be detrimental to local charities. Proponents say it is a way to infuse dollars into horse-racing. The bill had a 3-hour hearing Friday but there was no committee action taken.

I had the opportunity to sit in with the Senate Agriculture Committee hearings Friday as our Minority Senate member was gone for an appointment. I enjoyed being back in that committee where I spent four sessions working on issues important to rural North Dakota and District 23. We heard a couple of bills on "fake meat," a bill on securing liens and one on labeling feed.

In other activities, I attended the Advisory Committee on Revenue Forecasting with leadership, the Tax Department, Office of Management and Budget, and commodity groups including agriculture and energy on Thursday. Dan White, Moody's revenue specialist, attended by conference call. Several issues were finalized that gave Moody's input information to complete their March Revenue Forecast for North Dakota for the next biennium. We estimated that the North Dakota price of oil will average around $45 to $46 a barrel with around 1.3 million barrels a day. That price is the North Dakota price and is a very conservative estimate. The numbers for production are expected to increase slightly as we go forward. There was also an estimate that 90 new wells will come on line each month.

Taxable sales and purchases are expected to increase slightly, in the range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent. One area of concern is that farm machinery sales are expected to decrease by about 16 percent in 2019, 6 percent in 2020, and then increase by 17 percent in 2021 due to increases in commodity prices combined with a lowering of interest rates which will make lending easier. Adjusted gross income is expected to increase at about 6 percent in 2019 and 2020. Moody's will bring their forecast forward to the legislature on March 11.

One of the issues that has resurfaced is pipeline capacity. We heard that the Epping rail facility is beginning to fill rail cars on a 24 hour a day basis, 7 days a week. There is also concern about increased flaring of natural gas and lack of facilities to capture and move that.

IHS Markit is the forecasting company the legislature contracted with to provide another forecast. That company does not ask for expected increases or decreases from us. They have specialists working with industry each day in North Dakota and will bring their forecast for 2019 and 2020 forward on March 12.

Both of those sets of numbers from Moody's and HIS Markit will be instrumental in providing the Appropriations Committees from the House and Senate with information on expected revenues. Then the committees can begin to finalize all the agency budgets as well as see what will be available for other policy changes that require funds. As of last Wednesday, there were about $880 million more in requests than expected revenues. We know the new forecasts will not be $880 million more than we expect right now, but we are hoping for additional revenues to continue to provide services to the residents of North Dakota. Also, some of the $880 million in requests are doubles in a few cases with requests showing up in two different bills. The Appropriations Committee will take care of the double requests as they begin to move bills out for a final vote.

As we move into the second portion of the session, some bills will pass the second chamber, some will get defeated, and others that were defeated the first half may mysteriously show up as amendments in bills that are still alive.

Please continue to keep in contact by emailing me at [email protected] or by calling (701)302-0355.

Stay warm. Spring is on its way!